With the darker evenings, colder mornings, and leaves everywhere in sight, fall is sure in full swing here in the valley.
As we progress into fall and approach the wintry months, an opportunity presents itself to examine our local housing market and assess how home sales, prices, and overall market conditions are shaping up across Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.
With that, let’s start by taking a look at monthly residential home sales...
The graph above shows how monthly home sales in 2025 are comparing to both last year and the four-year average.
While this year started off a bit slower than 2024, sales activity has strengthened through the spring and early summer months, with 2025 numbers closely tracking or even surpassing recent averages. This rebound in sales likely reflects a more balanced market, as buyers are reengaging with mortgage rates edging downward and inventory improving modestly.
As we move into the slower fall and winter months, we’ll see whether this recent momentum continues or eases slightly. Right off the bat, I am inclined to think it may be easing slightly, as the October 2025 numbers have fallen below what we saw in 2024, following September 2025, when we saw 26 more home sales than in 2024.
Over the past five years, we’ve seen a clear shift in the local housing market. Annual home sales peaked in 2021 at nearly 1,600, and have gradually trended downward since, landing just above 1,000 so far in 2025.
During that same period, median sales prices rose steadily—from $247,000 in 2020 to just under $350,000 in 2025. While price growth has leveled off this year after several years of rapid appreciation, values remain near record highs.
In short, fewer homes are selling, but prices continue to hold firm—signaling ongoing demand despite tighter affordability.
This indexed chart helps illustrate the changes in sales activity and prices since early 2023.
Sales (blue line) have remained below early 2023 levels, hovering around 80–85% of that benchmark, while prices (orange line) have held steady and even crept upward, now about 15% higher than they were two years ago.
The combination suggests that, although fewer transactions are occurring, price stability continues due to limited inventory and steady buyer demand. The market remains active, just at a slower overall pace than in the high-volume years of 2021 and 2022.
Inventory levels tell an important part of this story.
After rising significantly through the first half of 2025—reaching their highest mid-year point in several years—inventory has begun to decline again in recent months. Even so, the number of homes for sale remains significantly higher than a year ago, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in quite some time.
This mild increase in available homes has helped ease the upward pressure on prices, though we’re still far from what would be considered a “balanced” market. If inventory continues to inch down through the winter, competition among buyers may heat up again heading into spring.
Homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County continue to sell quickly—very quickly.
After the sharp decline in days on market through early 2023, the median has stayed remarkably consistent, hovering around 5–6 days for much of the past year and a half. This means that well-priced homes are still going under contract within a week of being listed.
Even with slightly higher inventory and modestly lower demand, speed remains a defining feature of this market, underscoring how limited supply continues to shape local housing dynamics.
Mortgage rates have been on quite a journey over the past several years—from record lows near 2.8% in 2021 to highs near 7.8% in 2023.
The good news for buyers is that rates have eased in 2025, settling around 6.2% this fall. While still elevated compared to the pre-pandemic years, this modest decline in rates has brought a bit of relief to affordability and is likely contributing to the recent uptick in buyer activity.
If rates continue to edge downward, we may see more buyers re-enter the market as we move into 2026.
So, what does all of this mean for you?
Given all the data above, it’s fair to say the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market remains steady — not racing ahead, but not stalling either. Prices have held strong, sales have stabilized, inventory is a bit higher, and mortgage rates are trending slightly lower. Altogether, it suggests a market that’s cooling from the intensity of recent years but remains healthy and active.
Buyers — You have more breathing room than you did a year or two ago. There are a few more options on the market and slightly less competition, and with mortgage rates easing, affordability is inching in the right direction. You’ll still need to act quickly on well-priced listings, but it’s a friendlier environment than the frenzied market of 2021–2022.
Sellers — The market is still in your favor, though not quite as strongly as before. Homes that are priced right and presented well are continuing to sell quickly and close to list price. Overpricing, however, can result in a longer time on the market. Accurate pricing and preparation remain key to success.
Homeowners — You’re likely sitting in a great position, with steady home values and your mortgage rates likely still well below current offerings. The stability in prices and the return of a more balanced market are both signs of a maturing, sustainable local housing climate.
As we head into the colder months, activity will naturally slow, but the fundamentals remain strong. We’ll see whether the slight easing in mortgage rates and seasonal shifts set the stage for a more active spring market ahead.
Looking Ahead…
If you’re considering a move—whether buying your first home or selling your current one—feel free to reach out.
I’d love to help you navigate the market and make sense of what these numbers mean for your situation.
You can call or text me at 540-830-5097, or send me an email at [email protected]